Historical analogs
Compare the shape and regime of the current window with prior periods, then inspect every forward path rather than only an average.
A practical field guide to reading market history without turning a small sample into a story.
Compare the shape and regime of the current window with prior periods, then inspect every forward path rather than only an average.
Measure what a calendar window has done across the complete record, with sample size, spread, and path dependence visible.
Separate a relationship that persists through regimes from a temporary stretch of co-movement.
Define a market state, find independent historical occurrences, and compare the result with the ticker's own base rate.
Compare the lead-up to scheduled events with prior same-type events and read the distribution that followed.