It’s the question behind every position. ORION finds the windows in market history that match today’s setup and shows the full distribution of what followed.
And a tracked watchlist. Every saved read is graded as it resolves, hit or miss, on the record.
The chart in front of you has ancestors. The discipline is finding them honestly, and refusing to mistake the average of five outcomes for certainty.
One SPY search, followed through every view the engine returns.
Thirty years of tape, scanned for the shape of the current window.
The five matched windows, replayed from the match point. The shaded band is the middle of the pack.
The regime decides which history counts. Matched windows are banded on every series.
Median +2.9% over three months. The spread is the honest part.
Twenty years of months, measured against the base rate. Only four ever separated from it.
The engine doesn’t stop at a ticker’s own record. The same window is searched across every tape on file — and when another market traced today’s shape first, what followed there joins the read.
The closest shape to SPY’s six months isn’t in SPY at all.
A young tape borrows history from an older one.
The engine writes the close as a set of plain conditions, finds every day on the record that matched the same combination, and marks where each one sat.
SPY closed at a 52-week high while fewer than 40% of its own stocks held above their 50-day average.
Narrow highs resolved higher more often than the tape.
The VIX fell more than 10% inside a week while SPY finished the same week flat.
Nine instances. Read the spread, not the point.
SPY spent a fourth straight session inside the prior day’s range, the tightest week in six months.
Coiled tape leans with the prevailing trend.
Every night, ORION automatically scans the full universe so pre-market opens on the setup with the strongest historical read.
Upside skew: The analog cluster sits +7.4% away from this ticker’s own baseline, with 100% agreement across the read.
Each event carries an analog read going in — the lead-up matched against past lead-ups, and what historically followed. Listed in calendar order.
Every tracked setup is graded against what actually happened, hit or miss, on the record.
The consensus called +18.6% into a bear-market bottom. The green line is what the tape did.
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