ORION
HISTORICAL SPY
2009–2026 VIEWORION
Market history.
Made searchable.
Search a ticker, explore its closest historical matches, and see what followed.
Explore market historyONE SEARCH · FIVE CONNECTED SECTIONSDATED PRODUCTION READ · AS OF SEP 8, 2026
One question. The complete historical read.
One search opens Historical, Overlay, Macro, Outcomes and Seasonality.
OVERLAY SPY
5 REAL ANALOGSCompare what followed the matched windows.
Observed returns for the five matches, starting at the first post-match close. The green line is their median; shading contains the middle 50%. All paths and the +20D table use the same starting price and 20-session horizon.
MEDIAN AT +20 SESSIONS0.7%same five matchesMATCHES FINISHING UP3 / 5historical frequencyLOWEST AT +20 SESSIONS-2.9%HIGHEST AT +20 SESSIONS6.7%
MACRO SPY
REGIME CONTEXTCheck whether the backdrop agrees.
DXY DOLLAR INDEX98.8 PCTL 21
Weak USD
Gold/Copper RISK APPETITE9.85 PCTL 58
Neutral
Oil COMMODITY TAPE146.0 PCTL 99
Oil elevated
2s10s CURVE SPREAD0.41 PCTL 34
Flat
OUTCOMES SPY
5 ANALOGSSee what happened next, each time.
ANALOG WINDOWSCORE+20D+1Y+2Y
Q4 '12–Q2 '13range-bound · low vol · near highs92.4+6.7%+26.0%+38.9%
Q4 '13–Q2 '14range-bound · low vol · near highs92.3+1.3%+15.0%+15.2%
Q1 '21–Q3 '21range-bound · moderate vol · near highs91.4+0.7%−2.7%+2.7%
Q4 '10–Q2 '11range-bound · low vol · near highs91.4−2.9%+2.2%+30.8%
Q1 '23–Q3 '23range-bound · moderate vol · near highs · risk-off macro91.0−1.1%+30.1%+52.5%
AVERAGE OF 5across the analogs above—+0.9%+14.1%+28.0%
SEASONALITY SPY
33Y SAMPLEPut the ticker inside its calendar history.
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SPY: short-term volatility unusually low, with today's and the one-month moves subdued.
WED - AUG 26NVIDIA earnings5:00 PM ETVERIFIED
WED - AUG 26US GDP + durable goods8:30 AM ETVERIFIED
WED - AUG 26Salesforce earnings5:00 PM ETVERIFIED
GC=F—strongest historical match.
SCANNER PREVIEWDIA · 1M ANALOG CLUSTER
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THE PREMISE
Every market feels unprecedented. Almost none are.
SILVER · 2000–2026 · TODAY’S WINDOW, MATCHED AGAINST REAL HISTORY
THE MATCHED RECORDAS OF SEP 8, 2026
Inspect the matches, one by one.
The same five ranked matches, with their observed forward returns. Every forward path starts at the first close after its matching window and uses one shared scale.
CURRENT WINDOWHISTORICAL MATCH / OBSERVED FORWARD RETURN
Q4 '12–Q2 '13
MATCHED 126-SESSION SHAPES · END REBASED TO 0%
WHAT FOLLOWED · REBASED TO FIRST POST-MATCH CLOSE
Q4 '13–Q2 '14
MATCHED 126-SESSION SHAPES · END REBASED TO 0%
WHAT FOLLOWED · REBASED TO FIRST POST-MATCH CLOSE
Q1 '21–Q3 '21
MATCHED 126-SESSION SHAPES · END REBASED TO 0%
WHAT FOLLOWED · REBASED TO FIRST POST-MATCH CLOSE
Q4 '10–Q2 '11
MATCHED 126-SESSION SHAPES · END REBASED TO 0%
WHAT FOLLOWED · REBASED TO FIRST POST-MATCH CLOSE
Q1 '23–Q3 '23
MATCHED 126-SESSION SHAPES · END REBASED TO 0%
WHAT FOLLOWED · REBASED TO FIRST POST-MATCH CLOSE
These are observed outcomes after the historical matches. They are not a forecast of SPY after SEP 8, 2026. Similarity scores measure the match, not the chance of a gain.
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